Imagine a NASCAR Cup Series driver etching their name into history by clinching that elusive 60th victory—it's the stuff of legends, right? But here's where it gets controversial: After witnessing Denny Hamlin's emotional triumph at Las Vegas (check out the breakdown here: https://www.on3.com/pro/news/emotional-denny-hamlin-breaks-down-in-tears-after-winning-nascar-playoff-race-at-las-vegas/), Dale Earnhardt Jr. is openly skeptical that anyone else will ever hit that monumental mark. On his Dale Jr. Download podcast (catch the full episode starting around 10 minutes in: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bd1Bhs8iti0&t=600s), the NASCAR Hall of Famer dove into the drivers he thinks stand the best shot, and his outlook? It's not optimistic. For newcomers to racing, think of it like this: 60 wins is like reaching the pinnacle in a sport where consistency, skill, and longevity matter more than flashy moments. But Earnhardt's take raises eyebrows—could he be underestimating the next generation, or is he spot-on about changing times in the sport?
Earnhardt kicked things off by spotlighting Kyle Larson as a prime contender, stating flat-out that Larson 'could do it.' Yet, he circled back with a caveat that adds fuel to the debate: Larson might not stick around in full-time Cup Series action long enough if he shifts gears to dirt racing. With 32 wins under his belt currently, Larson has the talent, but Earnhardt questions his commitment. This is the part most people miss—how personal passions outside the oval could derail a driver's path to greatness, sparking questions about whether multi-discipline athletes like Larson are hurting their chances in one sport by chasing thrills elsewhere. For example, just as a basketball star might prioritize Olympic glory over NBA longevity, Larson's dirt interests could be his detour.
Shifting to Joey Logano, Earnhardt praised his potential but called for better performance in the regular season to realistically aim for 60. Logano sits at 37 wins, and Earnhardt predicts he'll sail past 50 but probably cap out around 55. It's a measured take, but what if Logano proves the doubters wrong with a standout year—could that change the narrative? And then there's Brad Keselowski, another name in the mix with 36 wins. Earnhardt doesn't mince words: he doubts Keselowski will crack 60 and says he'd be fortunate to hit 40. This prediction might ruffle feathers among fans who see Keselowski's smart, strategic racing as underrated; is Earnhardt dismissing a driver's resilience too soon?
But Earnhardt didn't stop there. He brought up Chase Elliott as someone who could theoretically reach the milestone, but he believes the Georgia native will hang up his helmet before getting there. With just 21 wins so far, Elliott's early retirement risk feels all too real in today's NASCAR landscape. And this is where the controversy really heats up: Earnhardt points out that top drivers are bowing out younger now than in the 'good old days' of 30 or 40 years ago, when it was commonplace to race well into your 50s. 'That number is sort of creeped down,' he noted, highlighting a trend toward earlier retirements. We don't have concrete data yet, but it's a trend that's reshaping the sport—think of it like baseball players retiring in their primes instead of grinding for Hall of Fame stats. Is this evolution a smart move for athletes' health and life balance, or is it robbing fans of epic, long-term rivalries? Earnhardt wonders aloud, and it's a question worth pondering.
Zooming out, Hamlin and Kyle Busch are the only active drivers who've surpassed 60 wins. Busch hasn't crossed the finish line in victory lane since 2023, but Hamlin, at 44, is on fire with six wins this season and steadily closing in on his first Cup Series championship. For beginners, this means Hamlin's story showcases how mid-career drivers can still dominate, defying the early-retirement trend Earnhardt describes. It's inspiring, yet it begs the question: Will Hamlin's success inspire others to stay longer, or is the sport doomed to shorter careers?
What do you think—do you agree with Earnhardt's predictions, or is he overlooking the hunger for glory that could push drivers to 60 and beyond? Share your hot takes in the comments: Could Larson commit fully, or will dirt racing win out? Is early retirement a blessing for drivers, or a loss for NASCAR fans? Let's debate!
